OK, earlier today I posted on the individual players in our first 11 picks. Now I want to address how this class, assuming we sign them all and stay within budget and, as a result, don't lose our first round pick next year, impacts the health of our farm system.
You don't get a do-over in a MLB draft. You get what you drafted and your organization has to live with that draft for roughly 5-10 years in terms of how it impacts your ML team. The pre-draft state of your farm system, if not healthy, can be made more, well, non-healthier. And you never recover. Ever. You may be able to make due in trading veterans for prospects but you never truly recover because you are giving up something to get something and you hope that the trade is a net neutral. But you never truly recover from two bad drafts in a row.
[Cue the ominous music]
As a starter, let's look at the Guardians picks in terms of where they were ranked and where they were selected.
1. Slot 23 - drafted #34 ranked prospect
2. Slot 58 - drafted #50 ranked prospect
2C. Slot 62 - drafted #124th ranked prospect
3. Slot 93 - drafted #151st ranked prospect
4. Slot 125 - drafted #232 ranked prospect
5. Slot 161- drafted #157th ranked prospect
6. Slot 188 - drafted #238th ranked prospect
7. Slot 218 - drafted #114th ranked prospect
8. Slot 248 - drafted unranked prospect
9. Slot 278 - drafted #241st ranked prospect
10. Slot 308 - drafted unranked prospect
So they ended up drafting ONE player who was much more highly ranked than the slot they were taken in, 3 players who drafted about where they predicted to be taken, 5 players who were taken much higher than where they were ranked and two players who were not ranked at all. No HS flyers who fell in the draft were taken like last year (Humphries and Zibin) and no players were taken who would require a larger than slot bonus to sign except for maybe their second round pick, who, as a HS pitcher, might require a slight premium over their slot value. So, to this point, they have not taken anyone whom they should be spending the excess money they likely save on their 2C, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10th round picks.
In this draft they drafted:
1. A HS catcher most of whose value rests on whether he can stay at catcher AND continue to hit
2. A HS pitcher who needs to improve his command
2C. A college reliever whose value rests on his being successfully converted to a starter
3. A college outfielder of the type they drafted last year being able to perform better than Lampe, Boyd, Furman and Lipscomb did this year.
4. A college player being able to stay at catcher and hit enough to offset his essentially non-existent power.
5. A college middle infielder being able to overcome his 20 level power.
6. Another college outfielder beng able to do better than Furman, Lampe, Boyd and Lipscomb
7. A college middle infielder without power who has to show that is really not an impediment to them being a ML caliber player
8. Another college outfielder beng able to do better than Furman, Lamper, Boyd and Lipscomb
9. A college reliever being able to translate his stuff to pro ball
10. A college reliever being able to translate his stuff to pro ball.
The Guardians in this draft were in need of more college pitching prospects (always, but more so given how badly the 2022 draft went), power hitting college players, especially corner infielders, quality catching in the middle minors (since they didn't draft Susac or Rushing last year) and some HS pitching prospects who are quality. They also needed to add to their minor league pitching depth because they really added no one in the 2022 draft who will ever pitch in the majors except for maybe Campbell if he returns healthy from his injury. The strengths of their system is middle infielders up and down the system, starting pitching at AA and AAA, catching at the lower levels of the minors.
They barely scratched the surface of addressing those needs instead doublng down in the first two rounds on High ceiling/low floor HS players, drafted 5 college hitters without power, 4 of whom hit left handed, doubling down on the same philosophy that didn't yield them any prospects in the 2022 draft, a college catcher who looks more like an organizational player, 3 college relievers, one taken in the second round.
Analysis -
In no uncertain terms I can say that, collectively, this was the botched draft in my memory of Cleveland Guardians drafts. Again, this was the worst draft in my memory of Cleveland Guardians drafts. No player taken in this draft except for their 2nd round pick even flashes anything more than average ML talent and that single player is only a good, not great prospect yet will likely require a way overslot bonus, way beyond what they are worth, to sign.
I know these are peoples' livelihoods we are talking about here but if I had ever delivered such a bad work product in my professional career it is a good possibility that I would have been fired on the spot. If I had delivered that level of work product two years in a row (2022 and 2023), it was guaranteed I would be fired on the spot.
I say again: worst botched draft I can ever remember for the Cleveland Guardians and that on the heels of the botched draft of 2022. Drafting all those slap hitting LH hitting players on the heels of doing the same thing, unsuccessfully, in 2022, drafting guys with 20 or 30 power grades, drafting all those guys way below what they were ranked, this is an insult to Cleveland fans everywhere. While major leaguers may come out of each of the 2022 and 2023 drafts, remember that 5-6 players from every draft should make the majors and 3-4 should have significant ML careers. We will be lucky if 5-6 players total from these two drafts make the major leagues and a total of 3-4 of them have significant ML careers. As near as I can predict, in the last two drafts, we drafted ZERO players with potential to be all-stars in the majors, with the best of the best having the upside of solid major leagues like Aaron Civale, Steven Kwan, and Enyel De Los Santos. If all we get from these drafts is those kinds of players, it can impact our competitiveness 3 years from now and the 5 years after that.
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